The Beginning of the End

Peter Suderman

"So. That happened." -- Alec Baldwin, State and Main

Indeed, that happened... but what, exactly, was it that really occurred? On a superficial level, Palin survived, even thrived on occasion. This whole time we thought she was the wolf, about to get gunned down from helicopter above. Turns out she's piloting the dern thing! What a marvelously executed reverse bait-and-switch: You think you're getting a broken down lemon -- turns out you're getting a used subcompact. Even if you believe -- as now seems clear -- that the rumors of her disastrous performances at mock debates were McCain campaign expectation games, it was hard not to breath a sigh of something-like-relief at the end of this match-up.

That's true even for those of us who aren't wild Palin supporters; it puts me at ease to know that America is not yet so weird, so frighteningly bizarre and inexplicable, so blazingly psychotic and maniacally self-destructive that it can allow one of its major political parties to nominate someone for vice president who cannot navigate the relatively calm and shallow waters of a tame debate. Sure, Palin's a dud in too many ways to count, but at least she can wade her way through a hand-held Q&A with Gwen Ifill.

Yes, yes, the whole thing is graded on a quasi-mystical curve determined by Washington's secret societies: political wizards and campaign gurus and people who read The Hotline. Expectations are to politics as spice was to the planets of Dune: He who controls them wins. And on that front, this was a coup for the McCain camp, which managed to convince everyone that Palin would drive her can't-answer-questions truck right over the cliff into a spectacular crash in the Valley of Oooooooohhhh...Noooooo. But, just like in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, it's a trick. You think she's trapped in the smoldering wreckage below; then the camera pans around to reveal that she rolled out at the last minute. In the movie, you feel sad, then elated. Indy could've died! But he didn't! Same story here. Expectations were so dismal that most of us hardened election junkies were borderline unshockable. Palin could've mumbled misremembered lines from the Muppet show all night, and there would've been no shortage of commentater just shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Yeah, figures." Instead, the camera whipped around, and there she was, safe and sound. She could've died! But she didn't!


Conor Friedersdorf

This debate had an arc to it — Governor Palin came out far stronger than I suspected she would, seeming sharp and well-spoken. On style she destroyed Joe Biden as things began, giving crisp answers while he got bogged down defending himself by spewing out numbers. After 10 or 15 minutes, I thought that Governor Palin would emerge as the clear winner of the evening.

But when the debate turned to foreign policy her style suffered, and more important, the substance of her remarks signified no real knowledge of any of the topics being discussed. Joe Biden, on the other hand, seemed to have a depth of knowledge on every foreign policy topic, and I say that as someone who often disagrees with Senator Biden — even when he’s wrong he knows what he’s talking about.

My guess is that Sarah Palin did good enough to reassure voters who were beginning to doubt her competency, but that she didn’t win anyone over to the Republican side. This is because the topics on which Biden won — the economy, Iraq, and understanding what regular people are going through — are the most important to voters, whereas energy (drill baby drill!) is mere fodder for the base, though I too think we ought to drill. Likewise the most memorable moment, when Biden got choked up about his deceased family members in a way that clearly wasn’t affected, goes to the Democratic candidate.

Stepping back a moment, America has just witnessed a style of debate different than anything we’ve ever seen before. Governor Palin used cuteness as a weapon, actually winking at the camera on several occasions. Is this a portent of things to come? I can’t imagine that it is, and so I think that this was a singular political moment, and that it probably had Hillary Clinton, and maybe even Laura Bush, vomiting on the floor. For me, this cuteness sometimes made her seem likable. Other times I found it distressing, and found myself thinking, "Weird, this is a vice-presidential debate, but I feel like I’m watching a Fox News morning show anchor." That isn’t a statement about substance at all — just style.

There are limits to the utility of these instant impressions, and I look forward to digging into the transcript over the next day or two, and may well determine that some of this is wrong. But my guess is that Governor Palin’s answers will be worse for closer analysis, because she used buzz words with relish — maverick, straight talk, etc. Also, Governor Palin expressed a desire to talk more to voters without the filter of the mainstream media. The test of whether this is a mere talking point — it is — or whether she is being earnest, is whether she seeks out unscripted forums with voters over the next several weeks.

Finally, what about my call for Governor Palin to be kicked off the ticket? One criticism of my article was that the base would never accept it, and Governor Palin performed well enough tonight for that to be definitively true. But I don’t think she performed nearly well enough to allow John McCain to win the election, and neither did she convince me that she would be capable of becoming President on day 2.

To put a finer point on this, I ask the following of everyone who watched tonight’s debate — were John McCain assassinated at his inauguration by terrorists, even as two American cities saw buildings partially blown up by truck bombs, and Vladimir Putin used the opportunity to move troops into a former Soviet Repulic, would you trust that Governor Palin would have the knowledge, credibility, bearing and calming influence on the country to handle the situation? Or would having her in the Oval Office freak you out in a deep way? I’d be frightened, and I expect a lot of people now supporting Governor Palin would think, "Oh God, what have I done." I was hoping I’d change my mind about that tonight, for I really am all about not wanting worse case scenarios to happen, but alas I still worry about it.